I'm now going attempt to recap some of what I heard Monday and Tuesday at the Mega Event in a couple of posts...

First up -- Craig Sherman from Gaia. Craig is all business, full of numbers and bravado when it comes to Gaia. The burning question is whether virtual worlds will ever reach the level of adoption with teens that MySpace or Facebook has. Craig says "Yes!" but danah boyd didn't think so. I didn't write down Gaia's numbers but they're huge and growing with more time spent per user than the social networking sites (makes sense), and Craig told me they are now valued at over $300 million, indicating that they wouldn't have that valuation unless they were going to be HUGE.

Craig pointed out that Gaia is not a game or an MMO -- this is an important distinction. There are MMOs, like World of Warcraft, which will always a certain type of gamer, are immersive -- you play and play and play. Virtual worlds like Gaia and Habbo are a hybrid of social networking (but with lots of people you don't know in person), casual games, events and most importantly a "place," one you drop in and out of -- Craig claims Gaia is more the new mall than MySpace. These worlds also take self expression and creativity to the next level by being able to create and share avatar fashion, decorating rooms, remixing video/music/etc. He also mentioned that MTV's virtual worlds inside Gaia were doing better than all of them combined on MTV.com - ouch. Gaia makes their real money from virtual goods and sponsor integrations that run anywhere from $50K to $1 million.

I'm not convinced that Gaia or virtual worlds like it will become as popular as MySpace and Facebook have (even if they begin to decline). I don't think MMOs will either (Media Post, reg. required). They will remain a niche -- a gigantic niche, but not everyone. I tend to agree with danah that the move will be to mobile. Why? Because most teens' real world friends will always be more important than virtual friends they meet in these worlds. Social networking sites have become part of the mix of technologies teens use to socialize with their real world friends -- they are a tool more than a destination. Will there be gobs of teens that dig socializing in Gaia? Yes. Obviously. And I'm sure they will continue to grow -- but the face-to-face factor, and anything that enables and enhances that interaction, will always dominate in most teens' lives.

Posted by anastasia